Are Apple’s recent actions a sign of their decline?
Apple has recently made a number of reversals. The iPhone price change. The iTunes Plus (DRM-free) price drop. The iPhone SDK announcement (after strongly implying that there would not be third-party apps on the iPhone).
So, answer me this. Are these decisions indicative of a company that is reacting swiftly to market changes, or signs that the company is no longer able to forecast the market as well as they were once able? Are they nimble, or stumbling?
What do you think?
What a seemingly simple question. I guess my answer would be: Both. Apple's bread and butter has always been making existing products better. iMac. iPod. iPhone. None of those was a new product in its segment when it was introduced, but it was (arguably) cooler and simpler than any of other products in its segment, so it succeeded, even at a higher price point. In most of what it does, Apple's really trying to push for new and better user experiences, and there's bound to be a lot of stumbling involved in that.
I think Steve is smart enough to know by now that he (Apple) stands to gain a lot from pushing a potentially unpopular product or service out the door half baked and then "fixing" it "in response to consumer demand." I doubt he'll ever be adequately recognized for his contributions to the field of mass marketing.
There is no denying that Apple makes existing product space cooler. That is, they hit a home run with the iPod in the existing mp3 player space. Same with the original (Bondi!) iMac (and, arguably, successive iMacs), and the iPhone too, in its own market segment.
And they have had their share of market failures, from the Apple III/Lisa/Mac XL, to the Newton, to today's Apple TV. That is to be expected.
But Apple has also consistently stuck to their guns regarding features and pricing, no matter what the pundits/experts/bloggers have said. The best example is the removal of the floppy drive. Steve bends over for no one, right?
So I am interested to see Apple apparently reacting to market pressures. Maybe this is just an indication of Apple's new marketshare successes. 70% of the digital music market. A rising share of the personal computer market. A significant (if not yet quantified) share of the cellphone market... maybe they can't ignore the market anymore.
I don't think the iPhone SDK was a market reaction. The iPhone was a v1 product, and it's understandable that the API would be in flux. I believe Steve's denial of existence or need of an SDK was classic Jobs jujitsu a la Intel sucks until the Mac runs on it.
The iTunes Plus I think is more of the same. If Amazon hadn't released their service then there's a good chance Apple wouldn't have dropped prices. But this move doesn't seem out of line with how Apple has continued to position the iPod as the market leader. Of course this is contrary to their strategy with pricing Macs since they haven't been anywhere near the top in terms of market share.
The iPhone price drop is more interesting. I suspect the market wasn't willing to pay quite the premium they expected, and they adjusted accordingly. Again, though I think they are aiming to take more market share and are trying to be more competitive.
As for nimble or stumbling, I think they're a nimble company. The iPhone is simply amazing (and as I said before we're still at v1). There are no serious challengers to the iPod. Mac market share is going up. Mac OS X is evolving (no more revolutions there) nicely. And they seemed to be well positioned for the future in terms of both hardware and software.
I do think they're getting into some new waters as far as catering to a larger audience. Dealing with the phone carriers and music and movie providers is also new territory. It's also a case where Apple is now so big in certain regards that it can't control the entire stack. So the real bell weather to debate over is the Apple TV. What's up with that?
Yeah. I don't have an Apple TV, so I don't have much to say (apparently, it is eminently hackable, which seems to be its greatest strength, and so contrary to Apple's closed-box approach...). But if the iPhone is a v1 product, then the Apple TV is v0.1 (though not beta, apparently it does work).
And I think I agree about the nimbleness. Especially amazing given their market cap is supposed to pass IBM and Intel today. You've seen bbum's map, right Denny (I know you have, you turned me on to bbum).
As an ATV owner (no, not that ATV), I'd suggest that it isn't any more or less hackable than, say, your standard Mac Mini. Once you get ssh running (which as hacks go, isn't exactly on par with unlocking the iPhone), the world becomes your oyster. Back when I had my first-gen Xbox (my first hack that required a soldering iron), I was blown away by that hacking community. That XBMC is truly a sight to behold.
I'm eager to see where the ATV goes from here, if anywhere. I suspect that any great advance will involve a hardware revision at this point, and how far can you push the ATV before it becomes a low-end Mini? God knows the Mini runs cooler than the ATV does....
Wow. You have an Apple TV? I'm impressed. You have moved up several notches in my book, man. So you'll drop pay-once cash on stuff, but not monthly fees (Apple TV vs. TiVo)? Eeenteresting.
The ATV's from eBay. I bid on a whim and ended up getting it. Note to self: Don't bid on a whim.
I now have all my home video available at the press of a couple buttons, not to mention IT Crowd episodes and rips of Arrested Development, etc. Ava loves watching video of herself. The ATV is connected via Ethernet to the NAS in the basement, and mount_nfs and ATVFiles make the access possible. it's pretty slick, but the coolness is wasted on Leah. I guess it's only fair, since I'm so unimpressed with her shoes and bags. She completes me.
She does know about Bag, Borrow, or Steal, right?
If she does, she hasn't let me know about it. She could form a trading network like that with her friends. Cut out the middle site.